Remember the inundation of articles over the last few years promoting the notion of infinite demand in China and India for commodities. The Chinese population was reported to be moving into cities at the pace of one New York City a month.
Two weeks ago the subtitle of our letter was -
Investment Manager Marketing - BEWARE. Our marketing department would be outraged by our title in this week's letter. But hold on, before we are delegated back to the "research room" let us ...
Investment Manager Marketing - BEWARE
Our portfolio of quality companies with strong management, blah blah blah. How many times have investors heard about the quality companies their manager owns? Just this week there was a column on a hedge fund manager ...
2008 was the year of the financial crisis and it appears that 2009 will be the year of the economic crisis. In our December fifth, Weekly Update we suggested that even more dismal economic headlines should be expected in the New Year. ...
Many years have passed since I finished my business degree, but academic misconceptions in finance remain. Dividends are promoted as payments made by companies that are unable to grow. Business textbooks state the only reason people will buy these companeis ...
The year was 1787. Empress Catherine the Great was touring Crimea, now part of her Russian Empire. General Grigori Potemkin hosted her excursion, where she saw from her carriage, flourishing villages off in the distance. She concluded Crimea was a valuable asset ...
PERFORMANCE - The QV Canadian small cap model portfolio declined 16.97% in the quarter, versus a loss of 30.41% for the benchmark BMO Small Cap Index (unweighted). The annual loss for the Fund was 29.54% versus a decline of 49.68% for the ...
Sorry for the less than cheery title to our final letter of the year, but how else do you describe it? You may find it surprising though, we are not in fact referring to the 2008 stock market crash. Rather, the recent ...
In times like these no one has the answers. Neither the government, nor the self-proclaimed economic experts have instilled much confidence in the public. People are becoming more and more uneasy with the situation and want answers. In this regard it appears ...
Today is "Black Friday" in the United States; the official beginning of the US Christmas selling season. This term is used to reference the Friday after Thanksgiving. It originated in Philadelphia in the 1960s to refer to heavy traffic flow, but the ...
"...it's not been possible to completely avoid the unprecedented global liquidity crisis of the last few months" - Ed Clark CEO of TD Bank commenting on TD Bank's profit warning and asset write downs earlier this week
The credit crisis has clearly evolved into a crisis of confidence. This is impacting the economy in a very real way as business and consumer spending has ground to a halt. This environment is stress testing business models to an extent we ...
Here we are, Halloween, one of my favourite times of the year. Ahhh, the tootsie rolls and the little munchkins dressed up as spooky ghosts and goblins is just the diversion most of us need right now. To top it off, the ...
Over the past year there have been extreme changes on so many fronts. In November of last year the front cover of India's national newspaper displayed a cartoon of an indestructible sacred cow in a superman costume celebrating the new found wealth ...
What a week this has been! Currently, governments around the world are trying to alleviate liquidity problems in the first half of this economic environment. The halves of this sporting contest can be separated into liquidity concerns in banks and a slowdown ...
It is tough out there. The S&P 500 has declined 29.8% from the peak reached at this time last year. According to data provided by Myles Zyblock at RBC Capital Markets the current decline is in-line with the average 29.7% drop in ...
To our Valued Clients,
Market volatility and uncertainty over the state of global financial institutions has resulted in many people questioning the solvency of their own financial institutions which hold their assets. As most of you know, RBC Dexia provides custodial, record keeping ...
There has been so much headline news yet so little of it seems to make much difference in this environment. The investment in Goldman Sachs by Berkshire Hathaway early in the week seemed to be a positive, for about six minutes. The ...
"I'm phoning about my exposure to AIG, Lehman and Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae?
"You haven't any."
"Whew."
"You're invested in smaller Canadian companies. They have no exposure."
We have been inundated with news on the bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. These firms, which the Globe & Mail calls "Fraudy and Phony" have further displayed the turmoil in the US credit markets. We believe the authorities placed a ...
It has been a long week back from the long weekend. The TSX has been plunging, down approximately 9% since the beginning of the week. Energy and basic material equities have fared the worst, following the underlying commodity prices down. The commodity ...
On occasion we've been asked, "what's the point of being cautious and defensive in your investing, after all you invest in stocks to make money don't you?" It is our belief that you invest not to maximize gains but rather to minimize ...
This Sunday marks the one year anniversary of the beginning of the US Federal Reserve's rate reduction program in response to the global credit crisis. On August 17, 2007, the Fed delivered their first of seven rate cuts to alleviate pressure on ...
The Summer Olympics in China commenced today (08/08/08) at 8:08:08pm China Standard Time. There were 15,000 performers at the opening ceremonies and 30,000 fireworks. What a start to the most expensive Olympics on record, with costs estimated to be as high as ...
That's right, the title says it all, this week we're talking about the portfolio. No economics, no monetary reports, and no commodity reflections - just the portfolio. For those of you who read this Update you know our outlook on the economy ...
Have we been too bearish? I received an e-mail from one of our more insightful clients yesterday, "Dear Leigh, I received and read your quarterly report last night and must admit that I found it to be right up there with root ...
During the second quarter, the Canadian small cap market continued to under-perform the large cap stocks as investors sought perceived safety. Historically the market has migrated to larger cap companies at times of uncertainty and potential economic slowdown. We would expect this ...
These markets are volatile! As I write this letter, the Dow Jones Industrial average is down 9.9% month to date. Most European markets are down over 10%. The S&P/TSX Composite is down only 3% as it has benefitted from the strength in ...
The above is the 'one man's meat is another man's poison chart'. What is good for oilmen is not so good for bankers. Our proposition is, this is about to change and the shift will result in higher interest rates.
Before we get into the hot topics of the past five days lets talk about the weather. Yes, for much of history the weather has been a topic of discussion for both idle chit chat as well as major global events. Today ...
The National Post today has an article discussing the 140th Belmont Stakes which is set to take place this Saturday. According to the article a horse named Big Brown is attempting to win the coveted "Triple Crown". For those who aren't horse ...
Mark Carney, the relatively new Bank of Canada governor, dropped interest rates 0.5% at the end of April. In their release, the Bank of Canada stated: "The Bank is now projecting a deeper and more protracted slowdown in the US economy. This ...
Here we go, we're ready for the criticism, as they say, "Bring it on". What has been the area of the stock market which has been hugely successful in the past three to four months? The answer, commodity stocks particularly energy companies. ...
As you can see, our long term performance is in the top five percentile but our shorter term performance has moved towards the median. For the past year our performance was in the 30th percentile.
Well, we finally did it. After a number of years of talking about attending the Berkshire AGM, we finally packed our bags and joined the other 30,000 or so people making their way to Omaha.
Yogi Berra is reported to have said that forecasting is very difficult, especially when it comes to the future. If we didn't know that Yogi was a Major League Baseball Hall of Famer, we would have guessed that he was a money ...
A crucial vote on the $32-billion restructuring plan for the frozen Canadian asset-backed commercial paper market will go ahead today. In light of this, it is timely to provide an update on the small cap fund's largest financial holdings.
One of our long time supporters in the Fund recently sent us an e-mail inquiring about some of our holdings. We thought that instead of giving you the usual macroeconomic outlook we'd share our thoughts on the things which matter most, individual ...
According to the consensus earnings estimates in Canada and the United States everything is going well. The anticipated growth in Canadian earnings is 10.0% for 2008. In the US, the market is even more optimistic with an expectation of 16.6% earnings growth.
Problem we have is, a lot of folks aren't responding to over a million letters sent out to offer them assistance and mortgage counselling. You know, these mortgages can be pretty frightening to people. I mean, there's a lot of small print.
President ...
A number of months back in our Small Cap Update we discussed the concept of "trust". Without it confidence in the system is lost, a terrible occurrence and one difficult to repair. Sometimes the question of truth is not as blatantly violated ...
Last year the BMO Small Cap Weighted Index earned a total return of 2.0%. The Unweighted Index lost 0.4%. The difference in returns suggests the positive return in the weighted index resulted from a few strong stocks, a characteristic of toppy markets. Our Small Cap returns on an average were in the region of 11.4% ...
Last week we reviewed QV Investors' corporate governance guidelines. This week we discuss three more governance qualities and capabilities that are of greatest importance to us. They are as follows:
At QV Investors, we review corporate governance qualities to ascertain whether a company's board has a shareholder friendly attitude as well as the capability and priorities required to make its stock a sound investment once the financial merits of the company have ...
Pay attention to the bond market. Canadian bond yields peaked in mid-2007, breaking a rising trend that begun in mid-2003. As the cracks in the financial system became more pervasive, bond prices began appreciating, a pattern that continues into the New Year.
David Rosenberg, the North American Economist for Merrill Lynch, summed up his and our stance for the last few years perfectly. He stated this week that "it sounds strange to hear a positive story coming from the skunk at the picnic…". We have been concerned about liquidity in the market. We have also been concerned about ...
Having to write a weekly investment letter can be challenging at times. You often feel like you're blathering over the same stuff week-in and week-out.
Quarterly earnings season is well underway and the trend of strong Canadian corporate profitability continues. Just over half of the companies listed in the broad S&P/TSX composite have reported to date, with first quarter profits surging 20 percent versus this time last ...